Jet Fuel Is Squeezing Airline Profits: United's Warning, Ryanair's +20%, and What 50+ Travelers Should Book Now

On October 20, United slashed its profit outlook because of one thing: jet fuel. Delta took a $6 billion fuel-bill hit. And Ryanair's CEO warns European fares could climb 20% next year. Here's why holiday fares are record-high — and the five moves to make this week.

By the WanderWise 50+ Team · Published October 21, 2026 · 7 min read

⛽ The headline in one box: United expects to pay $4.80 per gallon for jet fuel in Q4 and cut its earnings outlook 43% below Wall Street estimates. US airfares were already up nearly 23% year-on-year through September. If your holiday flight isn't booked yet, the price you see today is likely the cheapest it gets.

An airliner taking off into a hazy sky, with fuel costs pushing fares higher — Photo: Alexey Demidov / Pexels — an airplane soars through a dramatic cloudy sky

⚡ Key Takeaways

United (Oct 20): Q4 adjusted earnings outlook of $0.50–$1.50 per share vs. $1.76 Wall Street consensus — cut on $4.80/gal jet fuel.
Industry-wide pain: Delta cut its annual forecast by nearly a quarter on a $6 billion fuel-bill increase; Alaska expects its 2026 fuel bill $1.8 billion above plan.
Ryanair warning: CEO Michael O'Leary says European fares could rise as much as 20% next year (a warning, not a promise) on fuel costs and reduced capacity.
Fares already there: US airfares up ~23% YoY through September (government data); Thanksgiving flights up 31% (The Points Guy).
Senior stakes: on a fixed income, fuel-driven hikes bite hardest — and award prices have spiked too, so points aren't the free lunch they were.
5 moves this week: book now, fly Thanksgiving Day, return Monday, take pre-9am flights, burn expiring credits and perks.

Affiliate disclosure: We earn no commission on airline bookings made through the airline sites linked here. This guide may show hotel offers from our travel partners elsewhere on the site; those are always labeled.

⛽ United: $4.80/gal fuel 📉 Q4 outlook cut 43% ✈️ US fares +23% YoY 🇪🇺 Ryanair: +20% warning

The Fuel Numbers

On Tuesday, October 20, United Airlines forecast fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of 50 cents to $1.50 per share — well below the $1.76 Wall Street consensus. The $1 midpoint of its outlook is 43% below expectations (Reuters, October 20).

The culprit, in one number: $4.80 a gallon. That's what United expects to pay for jet fuel in the December quarter — about 45 cents more than the market consensus assumed, a difference the airline said is worth roughly $1 per share in earnings. And this is happening despite expectations for record revenue: United's premium and loyalty revenues were both up 17%, and fourth-quarter revenue is expected to grow more than 20% from a year earlier. Even strong demand and sharply higher fares couldn't shield profits from the fuel shock.

The pain is industry-wide. U.S. airlines spent $42.9 billion on fuel in the first eight months of 2026 — up $13.2 billion from a year earlier despite slightly lower consumption, per government data cited by Reuters. Alaska Air Group warned Tuesday that its fuel bill will run $1.8 billion above plan this year and forecast a Q4 adjusted loss of $2 to $2.50 per share, deeper than analysts' $1.04-loss expectation.

MorningBrew's framing puts the cause on the Iran war keeping oil — and therefore jet fuel — elevated, with Reuters' analysis noting the conflict threatens to keep fuel prices elevated into 2027. Treat that causation as analysts' framing, not a confirmed physical mechanism — but the prices on your screen are real either way.

50+ note: Fuel is the one airline cost nobody can discount away. Sales like Southwest's 40%-off promo (ending tonight) are priced against this backdrop — they're genuine deals, but the baseline they're discounting from keeps rising.

What the CEOs Said

United (Oct 20): The outlook cut speaks for itself — 43% below consensus on fuel costs alone. Even with record expected revenue, the fuel bill ate the upside.

Delta (earlier this month): cut its annual earnings forecast by nearly a quarter after projecting a $6 billion increase in its fuel bill from last year. CEO Ed Bastian warned that airlines may need to further restrain flight growth next year to sustain higher fares and protect profitability. Translation for travelers: fewer seats on popular routes, which supports higher prices.

Ryanair (Oct 20): CEO Michael O'Leary warned Tuesday that European airfares could rise as much as 20% next year as high fuel costs and reduced airline capacity squeeze the industry. This is the CEO's warning — quote it, don't treat it as a guaranteed 20% hike — but Ryanair is Europe's largest carrier and its fuel hedges expire in April 2027, which is why the warning matters for your 2027 Europe plans.

Read between the lines: when airline CEOs say "restrain flight growth to sustain higher fares," they're telling investors the plan is to keep planes full and prices up. That's good for airline stocks and bad for your wallet — unless you book strategically.

What It Means for Your Holiday Booking

This is the why behind the record fares in our 2026 holiday airfares guide. U.S. airfares rose an average of nearly 23% year-on-year in the seven months through September (government data, via Reuters), and The Points Guy puts holiday fares up an average of 23% due to rising oil prices, with Thanksgiving flights up 31%.

Three things make this winter different:

Points aren't the escape hatch. The Points Guy reported (Oct 19) that award prices in most major U.S. loyalty programs have spiked for holiday flights too, since many airlines now use dynamic award pricing. Points still beat cash out-of-pocket — but off-peak days cost far fewer miles than peak ones.
Cancellations are at a four-year high in 2026 (same TPG/Stacker report). Fewer flights plus capacity restraint means less slack when weather hits — build buffer days into trips that truly matter.
The direction is up. With fuel expected to stay elevated into 2027, analysts say carriers may have to raise fares further — or trim schedules to protect prices. Either way, waiting for a price drop is the risky move.

50+ note: On a fixed income, every $100 of fare inflation is a real budget decision. The moves below are ordered by how much they can save — start at the top.

5 Things to Do This Week

✅ The savvy 50+ playbook

Book holiday flights now, not later. Thanksgiving's booking window is closing (fares peak in the final weeks). The price you see today is, per everything above, likely the cheapest it gets. If you already booked and fares drop, most airlines let you reprice into a credit.
Fly ON Thanksgiving Day. Thanksgiving Day flights (Nov 26) run 20–40% cheaper than the days around it, per travel-data trackers. If family dinner is the priority, arriving the same day and staying through the weekend beats flying out Wednesday at peak prices.
Return Monday, not Sunday. The Sunday after Thanksgiving and Christmas are the year's most expensive return days. A Monday return (Nov 30 or Dec 28) is meaningfully cheaper — and retirees with flexible schedules are the one group that can actually do this.
Take the pre-9am flight. Early-morning departures consistently price lower than midday ones — and they're the most reliable: cancellations cascade through the day, so the 7am flight is your best bet for arriving on time.
Burn expiring credits, freebies, and perks before year-end. Airline credit-card free-checked-bag benefits, expiring travel credits, and hotel credits all have year-end cliffs. The TPG/Stacker piece flags this as the single most overlooked holiday-travel saving: check your accounts this week so nothing goes to waste.

Frequently Asked Questions

How high is jet fuel right now?

United Airlines said on October 20, 2026 it expects to pay about $4.80 per gallon for jet fuel in the fourth quarter — roughly 45 cents more than the market consensus assumption, a difference the airline said is worth about $1 per share in earnings. U.S. airlines spent $42.9 billion on fuel in the first eight months of 2026, up $13.2 billion from a year earlier, according to government data cited by Reuters.

Will airfares keep rising into 2027?

Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary warned on October 20 that European airfares could rise as much as 20% next year as high fuel costs and reduced capacity squeeze the industry — a warning, not a promise. Delta CEO Ed Bastian said airlines may need to further restrain flight growth next year to sustain higher fares and protect profitability. U.S. airfares were already up an average of nearly 23% year-on-year in the seven months through September 2026.

Did United really cut its profit outlook?

Yes. On October 20, 2026, United forecast fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of 50 cents to $1.50 per share, well below the $1.76 Wall Street consensus — the $1 midpoint is 43% below expectations. United blamed continued high jet-fuel costs despite expecting record revenue, with premium and loyalty revenues both up 17%.

Are award tickets affected by the fare increases?

Yes. The Points Guy reported on October 19 that award prices in most major U.S. loyalty programs have spiked for holiday flights too, since many airlines now use dynamic award pricing. Booking with points still avoids cash out-of-pocket, but compare award rates across dates — off-peak days cost far fewer miles.

What should 50+ travelers do this week?

Five moves: book holiday flights now rather than waiting; fly on Thanksgiving Day itself (20–40% cheaper); choose Monday returns over Sunday; take pre-9am departures; and use expiring airline credits, free checked-bag perks, and travel cards before year-end. Cancellations hit a four-year high in 2026, so build buffer days into important trips.

Why are fuel prices so high?

Analysts and outlets including MorningBrew point to the Iran war as the driver keeping oil — and therefore jet fuel — elevated, with Reuters' analysis noting the conflict threatens to keep fuel prices elevated into 2027. Airlines are passing costs on: U.S. airfares rose an average of nearly 23% year-on-year in the seven months through September, per government data.

Book Before the Holiday Peak

Record fares this winter — lock in your Thanksgiving and Christmas flights this week while today's prices are still today's.

Read Our Holiday Airfares Guide →